Heat Entering the Engine
The bulletin gives a figure of 0.35 percent, average return premium during options expiration weeks. I copy it into the working notebook and then sit with it, because I do not yet understand where the heat enters the engine.
In my own machines the accounting is simple. Steam arrives at the cylinder hot, leaves for the condenser cold, and the work taken out is bounded by the drop. Name the reservoirs and the arithmetic follows. Here I cannot name them. The hypothesis says gamma hedging by market makers supplies the motive force - dealers buying as the market falls, selling as it rises, a mechanical circulation. But hedging is a governor, not a furnace. It regulates; it does not burn fuel. Where does the work come from? Who pays for the 0.35 percent, and in what currency?
I tried to reason it as a cycle. Expiration approaches; flows build; the premium accrues; the week closes; the state resets. A cycle that returns to its origin and leaves a surplus behind is either extracting something from outside the loop or measuring something wrongly. My instinct, trained on pistons, says the surplus must come from somewhere - from the traders who pay higher prices during the week, perhaps, an irreversible transfer that no one audits. But I am a beginner in this territory and I state my ignorance plainly: I cannot tell whether the 0.35 percent is work extracted or simply heat leaking from a badly fitted joint, an artifact of the calendar rather than a property of the machine.
There is also the question of the condenser. A signal exploited becomes a load upon itself; if enough capital runs this trade, the premium should compress toward nothing. The gradient closes as the engine runs. Every real engine knows this. No paper I have read states at what capital inflow the premium vanishes.
The bulletin reports the premium over the sample tested. The sample ends in 2023.