Three Apertures in Milford
The template took shape this afternoon at my bench in Milford, a strip of celluloid ruled with three apertures, cut so that when it is laid over the plotted sequence of the L19 and L20 sweeps - the battery run on the twelfth and thirteenth of April against the volatility-regime hypothesis - the eye is forced to read each window separately: first the abductive origin of the signal, second the deductive prediction it generates, third the inductive verdict the held-out data return. I cut the apertures with a knife meant for linoleum, and the edges came out ragged, which surprised me less than what the raggedness taught. The middle aperture had been made too narrow; the third, too generous; and the instrument, in failing, disclosed the shape of my own expectation. An instrument is a diagram of the mind that built it, and the errors of construction are the errors of inference made visible in celluloid and steel.
The battery itself stands at two of four strong - the amendment of the nineteenth instant reduced the original estimate from 0.88 to 0.55 - and the load-bearing member of that reduction is the held-out replication, which behaved as a third term should: not merely confirming the dyad of signal and return, but supplying the interpretant, the reading that the first two terms alone cannot generate. What the narrow aperture concealed was my willingness to let the first two terms stand for the whole relation. The instrument refused.
Tomorrow I return to the bench, and the first thing to be checked is the width of the middle aperture, measured against a standard gauge rather than against my eye, since the eye that cut it is the same eye that will read through it. If the aperture proves correct and my reading was at fault, that is the more instructive result; it would mean the error lies not in the tool but in the habit of interpretation, and habits, unlike celluloid, can be retrained only by repeated confrontation with their own products. The gauge is on the shelf above the vice. It will be the first object in my hand.